On Thanksgiving Day 2025, three NFL matchups will dominate American living rooms—not just for turkey and tradition, but for the high-stakes drama unfolding on the field. The Detroit Lions open the day at Ford Field against the Green Bay Packers, followed by the Kansas City Chiefs visiting the Dallas Cowboys at AT&T Stadium, and closing with the Cincinnati Bengals traveling to face the Baltimore Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium. This isn’t just holiday football—it’s a pivotal moment in the NFC North, a potential turning point for playoff seeding, and a betting bonanza with prop lines that tell a story of injury, momentum, and guts.
Thanksgiving’s Opening Act: Lions vs. Packers
At 1:00 p.m. Eastern Time, the Lions take the field as 2.5-point favorites over the Packers, with a moneyline of -150 to +125. The over/under sits at 48.5, a number that feels oddly low for two offenses that have averaged nearly 27 points per game this season. But here’s the twist: the Packers’ defense has been gashed by mobile quarterbacks, and Detroit’s offensive line has quietly become one of the NFL’s most consistent units. Bookies.com is already recommending the under, citing weather forecasts and the Packers’ tendency to stall in the red zone. Meanwhile, Sports Betting Dime, Dimers.com, and Sportsnaut all predict a Lions win by three points or fewer—with scores ranging from 24-17 to 26-24. ESPN’s model gives Detroit a 54% chance to win, which is higher than most fans realize. That’s not a blowout pick. It’s a narrow, gritty, field-position battle.
And let’s not forget: this game matters. The winner inches closer to the Chicago Bears, who lead the NFC North. A loss for Detroit? Their playoff hopes get murkier. A win for Green Bay? Suddenly, the division race becomes a three-team brawl.
Chiefs vs. Cowboys: The Underdog’s Last Stand
At 4:30 p.m., the Chiefs roll into Arlington as 4.5-point favorites, though some sources list the spread as -4.5, others as -4.0. The inconsistency? That’s the market trying to find balance. The Cowboys are 4-1 against the spread as underdogs this season. Four straight home underdog wins, including a stunning 27-24 upset over the 49ers in Week 10. They don’t just cover—they dominate when written off.
Player props tell the real story. Xavier Worthy, Dallas’s explosive rookie, has a receiving yards line of 37.5. That’s a lot for a player who’s averaged 48 yards per game this season. But he’s been targeted 12+ times in three of his last four games. The over at +200? That’s not a gamble. That’s a value play. Jake Ferguson, the tight end, has a 34.5-yard line—lower than his season average. He’s been a safety valve for Dak Prescott all year. If the Chiefs bring extra pressure, Ferguson becomes the key.
And then there’s the trend: the Cowboys are 4-0 ATS as home underdogs this year. The Chiefs? They’ve covered just once in their last five road games. This isn’t about talent. It’s about mindset. Dallas has nothing to lose. Kansas City has everything to protect.
Bengals vs. Ravens: The Injury Factor
The nightcap is the most fascinating. The Ravens are 5.5-point favorites, but ESPN analysts are openly skeptical. Matthew Berry, in his betting breakdown, said: “I’m all-in on Joe Burrow returning and lighting up the Baltimore defense.” He didn’t just say it—he bet on it. And he’s not alone. Analyst Solak declared: “I love the spread at +7. This is the spot to fade the Ravens.”
Why? Lamar Jackson. His rushing yards line? 26.5. The lowest he’s had in three years. He’s been nursing a knee issue, and after a short week following a Thursday night game against the Steelers, his mobility is compromised. The Ravens’ offense has lost its rhythm without his scrambles. Meanwhile, Burrow’s passing line is set at 252.5 yards—below his season average of 280—but he’s playing against a Ravens secondary that’s given up 290+ yards in three of their last five games.
And the touchdowns? Jackson’s over/under at 1.5 is lopsided: -220 to go over, +160 to go under. That’s a market telling you: he’s not scoring. Derrick Henry, meanwhile, has a 91.5-yard line with a -220 moneyline to score a TD. He’s been a touchdown machine—but against a Ravens run defense that’s held opposing RBs to 3.1 yards per carry since Week 8. That’s a trap.
What’s Really at Stake?
These aren’t just games. They’re division deciders. The Lions need this win to stay alive in the NFC North. The Cowboys need this win to prove they’re not a fluke. The Bengals? They need to show they can win on the road without Joe Burrow’s full health—and maybe, just maybe, they’re about to send a message to the entire AFC.
And the betting markets? They’re not just numbers. They’re narratives. The under on Lions-Packers? That’s a bet on weather and fatigue. The +7 on the Bengals? That’s a bet on Lamar’s limitations. The over on Worthy? That’s a bet on Dallas’s desperation.
What’s Next?
If the Lions win, they’ll be within one game of the Bears with four to play. If the Bengals cover, they’ll be in playoff conversation. If the Cowboys win outright? They’ll be a dark horse in the NFC. The results will ripple through the postseason picture—and the betting lines for Week 14 will shift dramatically.
One thing’s clear: Thanksgiving isn’t just about stuffing and pie anymore. It’s about who’s got the nerve to bet against the grain.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why is Lamar Jackson’s rushing prop so low at 26.5 yards?
It’s the lowest rushing yards prop Jackson has had in three years, signaling serious concern over his knee injury and the short week between games. He’s averaged 78 rushing yards per game this season, and 62 in his last three outings. The line suggests the Ravens may lean on Derrick Henry more, or that Jackson’s mobility is compromised. This isn’t a fluke—it’s a red flag.
Why do analysts think the Bengals can cover +7 against the Ravens?
Despite Baltimore’s strong record, Joe Burrow’s return gives Cincinnati a high-powered offense that can move the ball efficiently. The Ravens’ defense has struggled against quick-passing attacks, and with Jackson banged up, their offense may stall. ESPN’s analysts believe the Ravens’ win probability is inflated by reputation, not reality—and that Burrow can exploit their secondary.
Is the under on Lions-Packers a smart bet?
Yes, if you believe in weather and situational fatigue. Both teams have solid defenses, and Detroit’s offense has been inconsistent in cold weather. Bookies.com specifically recommends the under, and historical data shows Thanksgiving games average 44.2 total points over the last decade. The 48.5 line feels inflated for a low-scoring, physical matchup.
Why is the Cowboys’ +7 spread on the moneyline considered valuable?
Dallas is 4-0 ATS as a home underdog this season, and their offense thrives under pressure. The Chiefs’ defense has been vulnerable to big plays, and Dak Prescott has a 10-2 record when throwing for over 300 yards. With the Chiefs likely to focus on stopping the run, Dallas’s passing game could explode. The +7 spread gives you room to breathe—even if Kansas City wins, Dallas covers easily.
What’s the most surprising prop bet of the day?
Derrick Henry’s -220 moneyline to score a touchdown. He’s averaging 1.1 TDs per game, but the Ravens have held RBs to just 1.4 total rushing TDs in their last five games. The line suggests he’s a sure thing—but the Ravens’ front seven is elite, and the Bengals game might force Baltimore to rely on Jackson more than Henry. That’s a trap bet.
How does this affect playoff seeding?
The Lions’ win would put them within one game of the Bears, keeping them alive for the NFC North title. A Bengals cover would push them into the AFC playoff picture, especially if the Steelers and Titans lose. A Cowboys win could vault them into the NFC’s 4th seed, making them a dangerous wild card. These aren’t just Thanksgiving games—they’re playoff tiebreakers in disguise.
